南海トラフ地震　発生が高まる兆しない

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気象庁では、大規模地震が発生する可能性が高いといわれる南海トラフ地震について、対象エリア周辺の地震活動や地殻変動などの状況を定期的に評価しています。評価は、毎月、「南海トラフ沿いの地震に関する評価検討会」「地震防災対策強化地域判定会」を開いて行っています。

２月５日に取りまとめられた最新報告では、南海トラフ付近では現在、特に目立った地震活動はなく、大規模地震の発生の可能性が高まるような大きな変化はないとのことです。


想定される南海トラフ巨大地震の震度分布（強震動生成域を陸側寄りに設定した場合）
資料：気象庁


■南海トラフ地震
駿河湾から遠州灘、熊野灘、紀伊半島の南側の海域及び土佐湾を経て日向灘沖までのフィリピン海プレート及びユーラシアプレートが接する海底の溝状の地形を形成する区域を「南海トラフ」といいます。
日本付近のプレートの模式図（資料：気象庁）

南海トラフ沿いでは、大規模地震（Ｍ８～Ｍ９クラス）が今後30年以内に発生する可能性が高いと予想され、その確率は70～80％です。これまで南海トラフ地震は、概ね100～150年間隔で繰り返し発生していて、前回の昭和東南海地震・昭和南海地震の発生から既に70年以上が経過しています。このことからも現在、切迫性が高い状態といわれています。


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No Prospect of Hurricane Dora Direct Hit on Hawaii

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Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023  At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 134.8 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next few days.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible this afternoon and tonight. Dora is then expected to weaken beginning Sunday and continuing through Monday.  Dora remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).
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KHANUN: Direct Hit on Amami, Headed for Kyushu

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KHANUN is moving eastward over the East China Sea. As of 5:00 AM, the central pressure is 970 hPa, with maximum sustained winds near the center at 30 m/s and maximum gusts of 45 m/s. The southern parts of the Amami Islands and the Okinawa Main Island region are currently experiencing strong winds exceeding 25 m/s. Although the typhoon’s intensity has slightly weakened, it remains powerful, and there is a possibility of it intensifying again over the Pacific after directly impacting the Amami Islands on Sunday the 6th. Following that, it is expected to change its course to the north and make landfall in either Miyagi or Kagoshima Prefecture on Wednesday the 9th, traversing Kyushu. Due to the slow movement of the typhoon, the impacts such as heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves may persist for an extended period. [Announcement by the Japan Meteorological Agency on August 5, 2023, at 5:33 AM] In the Okinawa and Amami regions, please exercise extreme caution against strong winds, high ...
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New Tropical Depression Forms, Expected to Become Typhoon No. 6

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While a large and extremely powerful Typhoon DOKSURI is moving northward towards the Chinese mainland, a tropical depression has formed over the eastern waters of the Philippines. The tropical depression is expected to develop into Typhoon No. 6 within the next 24 hours and continue its northward trajectory. Typhoon No. 6 is anticipated to approach Okinawa Main Island on Tuesday, August 1st, with a strong intensity. There is a possibility of Okinawa and Amami being significantly affected by destructive winds, high waves, heavy rainfall, and other associated impacts.
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