台風１６号　日本に向かって北上

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２３日木曜日の夜に台風１６号が発生しました。
気象庁発表によると、現在はグアムなどがあるマリアナ諸島付近を時速２０キロで西に進んでいます。このあと発達しながら北西方向に進んで、２８日火曜日に非常に強い勢力で日本の南海上に達する見込みです。
予想進路図はJTWC（米軍合同台風警報センター）のもので、気象庁よりもやや沖縄よりに進路が予想されています。

気になるのは、その後日本を直撃するかどうかですが、NOAA（アメリカ海洋大気庁）の予想モデルでは、西日本や南西諸島に向かわず３０日木曜日前後に小笠原諸島付近に達する可能性が示されています。
ECMWF（ヨーロッパ中期予報センター）の予想では１０月１日金曜日前後に関東方面に進むコースとなっていて、まだ予報機関ごとにばらつきが見られます。

いずれにせよ来週は日本に影響する可能性が高そうなので注意が必要です。

Typhoon No. 16 occurred on Thursday night on the 23rd.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, it is currently moving west at 20 km / h near the Mariana Islands, where Guam and other areas are located. After that, it is expected to move northwest while developing and reach the southern seas of Japan with a very strong force on Tuesday, 28th.
The predicted course map is from JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the US Army), and the course is expected to be slightly closer to Okinawa than the Japan Meteorological Agency.

What is worrisome is whether or not it will hit Japan directly after that, but the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecast model shows that it may reach the vicinity of the Ogasawara Islands around Thursday 30th without going to western Japan or the Nansei Islands. 
The ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Forecasting) forecasts that the course will proceed toward the Kanto region around Friday, October 1, and there are still variations among forecasting organizations.

In any case, it seems likely that it will affect Japan next week, so be careful.



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